Carson Williams Prospect Analysis

Rays Future SS Continues to Mash in Double AA

Carson Williams MLB Top Prospect; mlb.com

The Rays have dealt with a lot this past year, most notably with the entire Wander Franco saga. Normally small market teams that lose a player they signed to the largest contract extension in franchise history will hardly ever recover. Luckily for Tampa Bay, they have the next future SS lined up in 21 year old Carson Williams, and Rays fans can potentially see him very soon. 

The Rays drafted Williams in the 28th pick in the 1st round of the 2021 draft, handing him a $2.35 million dollar signing bonus. Williams was drafted out of Torrey Pines high school in San DIego, where he slashed .455 with 11 HR’s his senior year and also had a stellar season on the mound with 90.1 IP and a 1.24 ERA. 

Those pitching stats are relevant because there have been rumblings that the Rays flirted with the idea of moving Williams to the mound with his strong arm, but with his 6’2 180 lb frame, he has the glove and build to stay at SS for a long time in Tampa Bay.  

In the most recent farm system rankings after the 2024 MLB Draft, Williams has climbed all the way to #6 on MLB.com and #2 in the Rays system which was ranked the best system in all of baseball. Williams only ranks behind his left side counterpart 3B Junior Caminero, who has a much different scouting profile and player build than Williams. 

Williams started off hot in 2022 as he finished with a 124 WRC+ in Low A, following that up with a 20-20 season in 2023 in High A. Scouts project his defense to be gold glove caliber at short, with the arm being his most elite tool as he already has a minor league gold glove on his resume. Listed below are Williams 20-80 prospect grades: 

Scouting Grades: Hit 45|Power 60| Run 55| Arm 70| Field 65| Overall 60

WIlliams elite fielding tools and power combo are a rare combination of tools that lead to the Rays having a long term answer at shortstop. I expect him to get some reps at the major league level in 2024, following this wave of September call-ups. The Rays sit at 65-66 as of August 27th and are 7 games back of a wildcard spot, so there’s a good chance we won’t see Williams and left side counterpart 3B Junior Caminero in any postseason action this season. 

The Rays have a history of waiting much longer than necessary to call up their top prospects, and that could be happening here with Williams as he’s slashing .254 with 15 HR’s with 50 RBI and swiping 30 bags in the process. This is Williams second full season in Montgomery, the Double AA affiliate of the Rays and he will almost certainly start 2025 on the big club or in Triple AAA. Pictured below are Williams’ career minor league stats.

Williams does most of his damage against left handed pitching, typical for a player with his scouting profile as he carries a .297 average and .915 OPS against south-paws this season. I actually think WIlliams' hit tool is projected to be worse than it will be in his career based on his averages and hard hit rates in Double AA. 

If I were to point to a flaw in Williams' game it would be the alarming strikeout rate which is what could be keeping him from a Triple AAA promotion. He strikes out almost triple the time he walks at almost a 30% clip, which is something the Rays front office is probably looking at more than the regular counting numbers. Once he gets this ratio more aligned expect a promotion as soon as possible to help a flustered Rays offense. 

Pictured above is Williams and 3B Junior Caminero appearing in a Rays Spring Training game (mlb.com)

My most accurate player comparison for Williams is a young Trevor Story. Story had a plus power and speed combination with an elite glove at short in his prime, but if there was any clear flaw it would be the hit tool in his youth. Both have a tendency to strikeout a good amount, but possess loud tools at a premium position. Both have a similar frame standing each at 6 '2 with Story weighing in at 208 as a filled out 32 year old Williams will be at a similar frame in no time. Coors field definitely boosted some of Story’s power numbers to a threshold Williams may not reach, but Williams has a bazooka at short which projects his defensive profile to be slightly better than Story’s before his pro debut. 

In conclusion Rays fans expect Carson Williams to be the long term answer at SS for the next 5+ years as he becomes arbitration eligible. His tools are super projectable to not only stick at SS and be a middle of the order bat, but be a gold glove caliber player for an organization praised for developing young infielders. 

Sources:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/carson-williams-700246 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/carson-williams-700246