Fernando Tatis Jr Player Analysis
What Can We Expect From Tatis Moving Forward?
Fernando Tatis Jr named All-Star starter. Credit: East Village Times
What was once looked at as a future icon of baseball, Padres Right Fielder Fernando Tatis Jr has had many hurdles to ultimately get to where he is today. Ranked the #2 overall prospect before his 2019 rookie season, the ceiling was high for Tatis as he and Manny Machado were labeled the saviors of a truly pitiful Padres franchise. He was traded to San Diego in a one for one trade with the White Sox for veteran arm James Shields in what will surely go down as an all-time mistake for Jerry Reinsdorf and company. He would impress in his rookie season playing in only 84 games but hitting .317 with 22 HR’s 53 RBI and a .969 OPS at age 20. He left San Diego with a swag and energy that fans would go crazy for, following a nice shortened 2020 campaign where he hit 2 iconic home runs against the Cardinals in the wild card round and finished 4th in NL MVP voting.
By then, Tatis was the hottest icon in baseball by far and he furthered his status with an absolutely monster 2021 campaign. Tatis hit .282 while leading the NL with 42 HR’s and 97 RBI swiping 25 bags with a .975 OPS. He is 1 of only 4 players in the history of the MLB to have a 40 HR season at shortstop and the first player to have a 35+ HR and 25+ SB season during their first 150 games as a pro.
AJ Preller made the clear and obvious decision to extend Tatis with a 14 year 340 million dollar deal, which would keep him in SD long term. Tatis became the youngest player ever to ink a 300+ million dollar deal at the age of 22. Shortstops with a rare power speed combo don’t come by often, and Tatis’ talent is absolutely undeniable. It was the start of the 2022 season that things sort of began to unravel.
It was announced he’d miss the first few months of the 2022 season with a broken wrist, which was caused by him crashing on a motorcycle in the Dominican Republic. This was certainly not good news for fans in San Diego, especially being that it was caused out of pure stupidity. The Padres made arguably the biggest trade deadline deal in MLB history, which headlined CJ Abrams, James Wood, Mackenzie Gore and other notable prospects being sent to Washington for OF Juan Soto and 1B Josh Bell. The expectation was that the Padres would have a 1 2 3 of Tatis, Soto and Machado come October.
Not even 48 hours after they made this deal, it was announced that Tatis would miss the rest of 2022 and part of 2023 after a 60 game PED suspension. A once Hall of Fame trajectory, completely ruined and a career tarnished, especially since real fans knew this guy had all the talent in the world and didn’t need this boost whatsoever.
SD Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr Suspended 80 games for PED use; Credit ESPN.com
Tatis became one of the most hated players in all of baseball, especially after doing this in the first year of a 340 million dollar contract. This incident topped with the motorcycle crash made Tatis the poster boy for proving to every baseball fan why you should not give a 22 year old this massive of an extension. Without him in the 2022 postseason, San Diego had a great playoff run making it to the NLCS. He’d bounce back into baseball with a solid 2023 campaign winning a platinum glove at his new position Right Field, but was primed for a resurgent 2024 year.
Tatis was named an all star starter this season, but a right femoral stress reaction sidelined him for months, derailing any MVP conversations. His health continues to be a question and something the Padres monitor closely, but he returned to RF in early September for the Padres. Listed below are Tatis’ baseball savant pages and spray charts for the 2024 season:
From the picture above it's still very clear Tatis is uberly talented and is still one of the premier hitters in the sport. However, during his 2020 and 2021 seasons, most if not all of those hitting metrics were in the 98th-100th percentile. Is it a slight decline? Sure, but a slight decline from a MVP level player is still a talented player and Tatis’ injuries have made it difficult to get back in the groove of his 2021 year. One thing I’m paying close attention to are his opposite field approach down in the count and on the other spectrum his defense.
Taking home a platinum glove after a transition from SS to RF caught everyone's attention in 2023. I was curious to see how he'd adjust from being the center of attention at SS to playing a tough position in RF at Petco Park. Needless to say Tatis excelled in 2023 deemed the league's best fielder overall and being in the 94th percentile in outs above average and arm value, with 99th percentile arm strength. The numbers on defense in year 2 haven’t translated as well, with a negative OAA and average arm value, but he still carries an absolute bazooka in right.
Transitioning back to offense, one thing that's stayed consistent for Tatis; healthy or not, is that he absolutely destroys the baseball. His exit velocities are impressive in all quadrants as shown by his strike zone chart below.
Trying to pitch inside to Tatis hasn’t fared well at all for opposing arms as his average exit velocity for pitches up and in off the plate is an astonishing 94 mph. There is also not a single quadrant inside the strike zone with an average exit velocity under 90 mph. Tatis will find barrels no matter what, and with protection in the form of Luis Arraez and Manny Machado, I expect Tatis to make a significant impact for the Pads as they almost certainly play in October this year.
Tatis is already a Padres legend, regardless of the hurdles his career has faced but there is too much talent here to think that this guy will never get to perennial MVP form. I expect a monster 2025 campaign and the story of his career will continue to be if he can stay healthy for multiple seasons in a row and if he can produce like he did in his early 20’s. The talent is undeniably, and even if he isn’t the face of baseball, he’s most certainly a pillar of a resurgent Padres franchise.
Sources:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tatisfe02.shtml
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/fernando-tatis-jr-665487?stats=statcast-r-zones-mlb
https://www.mlb.com/news/gunnar-henderson-on-pace-for-historic-season-in-2024
