Aaron Judge Player Analysis
Why the Yankee Outfielder is Already a Hall of Famer
For starters, the man pictured above is the best hitter of the baseball on the planet earth. I’m not a Yankees fan whatsoever nor do I typically give players this much praise, but I’d be deemed a fraud if I didn’t admit that Aaron Judge is the epitome of greatness. Standing at a towering 6 ‘7 282 lbs, the massive outfielder plays center field for the most historic team in the MLB, the New York Yankees. Playing in the Bronx comes with a lot of, let's just say bullshit, when it comes to the harsh media and diehard Yankee fanbase. They expect a lot and demand even more, but Judge somehow exceeded even the most outrageous expectations during his career with New York.
For starters his rookie season in New York saw him break the rookie home run record, which still stands today, as a 25 year old with 52 HR’s 114 RBI a whopping 1.049 OPS and 171 OPS+. He garnered his first all star appearance, casually winning the home run derby as a rookie, while winning Rookie of the Year honors.
Controversy arrived with his MVP voting, where he finished 2nd behind Jose Altuve who won a batting title but had every other notable offensive category cleared by Judge. The controversy really escalated when the Astros 2017 cheating scandal was exposed and fans were outraged at Judges 2nd place finish. Nevertheless, it was wildly impressive and Judge quickly became a household name for Yankee fans.
Unfortunately for Judge his production was halted slightly by nagging injuries as through the 2018-2020 seasons he only played in 63% of games during this stint, while still providing the Yankees with massive power numbers when available. He had a bounceback year in 2021 notching 39 HR 98 RBI season, while finishing 4th in MVP voting. By then Judge was widely considered the most premier power threat in the sport even with the injury bugs. Pictured below are Judge’s advanced batting numbers from the 2017-2021 seasons:
What stands out here to me is the average exit velocity exceeding 95 mph 4 out of 5 seasons as well as the BAbip being above .330 in 4 out of 5 seasons as well. This tells me that even during his late 20’s Judge had the premier power profile to put up the numbers he’s putting up right now. Translation: what he's doing the past 3 seasons should shock nobody (except maybe Red Sox fans).
Let’s dive deeper into those last 3 seasons because they’ve simply been historic. Judge’s 2022 season will be remembered forever as he belted 62 HR’s 131 RBI with a 1.111 OPS and a 210 OPS+. This literally means Judge was 110% better than an average major league hitter during 2022. On top of that he set the franchise record for most single season home runs in Yankees history and the AL single season home runs breaking Roger Maris’ previously held record.
That 2022 season Judge was hitting leadoff most games since the Yankees lineup as a whole was subpar at best and Judge had no real consistent protection. Well in January of 2024 the Yankees went all in and traded for Juan Soto. Now in 2024 they both lead the league in walks by a sizeable amount and the protection has propelled Judge to have an all time season
Aaron Judge hitting Image from AP News Pamela Smith
As of August 28th, Judge is hitting .333 with 51 HR’s 122 RBI a 1.197 OPS and a 229 OPS+. It’s almost like he's playing MLB the Show on rookie mode. Judge is on pace to beat his own record and finish with 63 HR while shattering numerous other records. He is on pace to have a 100 XBH season and a 400 total base season which has only been done 4 times in the last 76 years.
What's remarkable about Judge is that he is nowhere near a ‘power only’ guy. He’s cut his strikeout percentage to a career low 23.4%, right around league average for a guy with a larger strike zone at 6’ 7. He would be running away with the triple crown if it wasn’t for Bobby Witt Jr’s .347 average but according to OPS+, which takes into account era and ballpark factor this is the greatest season EVER from a right handed hitter. Pictured below are Judges baseball savant chart and spray chart.
It's just unbelievable how impressive his advanced and counting numbers are as he is in the 100th percentile in 7 major offensive categories and in the 96th percentile or above in every one. His knowledge of the zone and ability to hit for power to the opposite field and take advantage of Yankee stadium is remarkable.
I’ve been alive to watch Trout and Pujols and even the end of Rodriguez and Ortiz but this is the best offensive season I’ve ever seen in my life. Look for Judge to waltz into his 2nd MVP comfortably further cementing his Hall of Fame case.
The Yankees currently are tied for MLB’s best record at 78-56 and without Judge they would be nowhere near that number. He is the heartbeat to the team and Yankee’s fans and manager Aaron Boone know it. This season Judge eclipsed the 300 home run mark, and it took him the fewest amount of games played ever to do so. He has also led the league in average exit velocity for 7 straight years. He’s doing this all while playing center field for the Yankees, with solid defensive numbers and a bazooka for an arm. Judge is an opposing teams worst nightmare and pitchers can’t throw this guy anything. Listed below are his zones for BA, xBA, SLG and xSLG
Obviously the middle of the zone is where most good hitters do their damage, those numbers are insane but more notably the up and away pitch that he can take over the short porch in right field, knowing how pitchers will try to get him out.
Judge has already exceeded the 50 WAR mark in his career, which makes his Hall of Fame case very interesting. Taking away the 2020 covid year, Judge only has 7 full years in the big leagues. He’s a 6 time all star, 3 time silver slugger and going to be a 2 time MVP after year 7. Voters would have a tough time putting him in the Hall if he retired today just because of his longevity and counting numbers on paper but to me, even if he retired today he is a sure fire Hall of Famer. I could see him flirting with 500 home runs and getting up to 70 WAR for his career and this would make him a no doubter for the Hall. Judge is signed till 2031 on a 9 year 360 million dollar extension so Yankee fans can enjoy this production at least until then as Judge will look to break his own records.
Sources:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/judgeaa01.shtml
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/aaron-judge-592450?stats=statcast-r-zones-mlb
