Can the Youngster Keep This Production Up?

The Royals have their guy. It’s just as simple as that for Bobby Witt Jr who is the epitome of what the face of a franchise should look like. The former #2 overall prospect made the big league roster on April 5th, 2022 and actually made his debut at 3B. The 24 year old Witt stands 6’1 with a 200lb frame and was drafted #2 overall by the Royals in the 2019 draft out of Colleyville Heritage High School out of Texas and handed a $7.7 million signing bonus.

Witt’s rookie season was promising, playing 150 games batting .254 swatting 20 HR’s with 80 RBI’s and a .722 OPS swiping 30 bags in the process. It was a developmental season for Witt, as he had trouble adjusting to the field with -11 OAA (outs above average). This statline was still more than good enough to finish 4th in AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2022. Outside of Witt, Royals fans didn’t have much to get excited for as they finished 5th in the AL Central at 65-97.

Witt’s sophomore season was even more impressive as he slashed .276 with 30 HR’s and 96 RBI leading to an .813 OPS, swiping an astonishing 49 bases. He was the first player in Royals history with a 30-30 season and the 7th in MLB History to do it in his age 23 season or younger. Witt played every game in the field at SS, finishing 7th in AL MVP voting during this age 23 season and improved his defense dramatically being in the 98th percentile in OAA with 14, proving he can stick at SS for a full 162. During the 2023 offseason the Royals handed Witt a much deserved 7 year $149 million contract extension, which he continues to outperform.

Witt’s 2024 season to date has been easily the best in his career, as he was named an All-Star and is leading the league in average at .349 (as of Aug 15). With still 50+ games to play, Witt is hitting an astonishing .349 with 24 HR’s and 89 RBI with a 1.009 OPS. It’s hard to label this season a breakout campaign since he was already so good, but his numbers are just eye popping and the Royals are winning because of him. Witt carries a 7.9 WAR with him which is the best mark in the league outside of only Aaron Judge (8.4), and it translates into wins as the Royals are 66-55 and currently hold a playoff spot.

Witt is arguably the most complete player in the entire league, as all 5 tools were reflected in his scouting grades. Witt has one of the most impressive scouting reports I’ve ever seen from a player drafted in high school. His grades are pictured below:

60 on the scale is considered a ‘plus’ attribute and clearly scouts projected this 5 tool talent and its safe to say some of these grades could’ve been even higher. Witt’s hitting tools will just continue to elevate throughout his career, with his strikeout percentage dropping each year, but he is also barreling the ball and owning the strike zone. Witt has a 173 WRC+ an advanced statistic indicating weighted runs created and accounting for ballpark hit factor, where 100 is an average player. Pictured below are Witt’s zone charts for exit velocity this season, indicating his elite plate coverage.

Witt mashes pitches on the low outside corner, which is just insane considering that is where most pitchers strikeout pitches are located. Although impressive, his consistency in all parts of the zone just indicates there really isn’t a pitch that Witt can’t hit and it will take elite pitch tunneling and command to get this guy out. His spray chart which is also pictured above indicates he is using his speed to leg out lots of infield hits as well as using his strength to drive the ball to all fields. An interesting point about Witt is that a lot of the home runs and doubles are to the pull side, but the hits are spread out which tells me he has a consistent two strike approach and pitch recognition to turn on mistakes in his wheelhouse.

I’ve covered Witt’s hit tools a lot and while those numbers are just eye popping, let's dive into what makes him the ideal 5 tool player for today's game. It starts with his baseball savant page, which indicates his percentiles in meaningful categories and Witt’s 2024 savant page is flat out the most impressive I have ever seen.

At first glance, you see lots of red which is a good sign. Witt has two categories in which he is the best single player in baseball with the fastest sprint speed and expected batting average. He is in the 99th percentile in batting and base running value and 98th percentile in fielding value at an ultra premium position at SS. Simply put, there is not a flaw in Witt’s game and in my opinion, he’s the most complete player in the entire sport at only age 24.

I give Witt a lot of praise, and for good reason, but to me his breakout season is the reason why the Royals are contending for the playoffs as his game directly correlates to wins. He’s got a chance to rake up another 30-30 season with a legit shot to add a batting title to his resume and rival Aaron Judge for MVP honors this season, especially if Kansas City can keep their playoff spot. Witt also played in the World Baseball Classic in 2023 and the Home Run Derby this past All-Star break, making him more of a household name and if he keeps this type of production going, he has a real shot to be the future face of the sport.

Sources:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/bobby-witt-jr/25764/stats?position=SS

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2021/top100/bobby-witt-jr-677951

https://www.mlb.com/player/bobby-witt-jr-677951

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=wittbo02&year=2024&t=b