Jackson Merrill Player Analysis
It’s safe to say it's Merrill Madness season in America's finest city. The 21 year old center fielder has been nothing short of excellent in his 2024 rookie campaign, taking on a huge assignment by switching from shortstop to center field in spring training and executing to perfection. Just for reference, on opening day he was the 2nd youngest player on a major league active roster and the only players in MLB history that were younger than Merrill to start in center field on opening day are only Ken Griffey Jr and Ken Griffey Sr. That’s pretty good company to be with especially after playing the position for only 3 months.
Merrill is as complete a hitter as they come, although I don’t think anyone expected this level of production so early on. As of August 12th he is hitting .289 with 17 HR 64 RBI 13 SB and a .800 OPS. Merrill also got his first all star nod this July, making him the youngest Padre ever to become an all-star. In the current age of platooning players and easing players in, Merrill has played 116 games as of August 12th and still starts against tough left handed starters. Merrill, once a top shortstop prospect, survived multiple AJ Preller prospect fire sales, most notably not being a piece in the Juan Soto trade as it's clear the front office saw something in Merrill.
Thank god they did, because truthfully I don’t know where the Padres would be without him this season. I know for a fact they wouldn’t be 13 games over .500 and in possession of the first wildcard slot (as of August 12th). Merrill has stepped up in the clutch multiple times this season, most notably with a game tying homer in the 9th against the Dodgers and Pirates, and a massive walk off homer off of all-star closer Mason Miller in June. Listed below is Merrill’s baseball savant page as of August 7th.
The savant page supports the notation that Merrill is a true 5 tool centerfielder ranking in the higher percentiles in total value, base running value, fielding value and hitting value. A particularly eye popping number is the xBA (expected batting average) is in the 93rd percentile in all of baseball with a .295 expected average only 6 points higher than his actual average. Other notable statistics are his 94th percentile arm strength, 92 percentile sweet spot percent and his 97 percentile base running value. One thing Merrill was always praised for as a prospect was his elite hit tool, with a large frame to build in where power would develop eventually. His 20-80 prospect scale entering the 2024 season shaped up like this:
Hit: 60 Power: 55 Run: 50 Fielding: 55 Arm: 55 Overall: 60
Merrill’s hit tool is defined by his ability to hit all types of pitches, including pitchers A tier breaking stuff. This has translated into his rookie season as he hits to all fields consistently, and his elite speed allows him to leg out infield hits on the left side of the infield. Merrill took home National League Player of the Week honors this past week, highlighted by a 7 game hit streak highlighted by a series of clutch home runs late in games.
One of the most impressive things about Merrill is his knowledge of the zone and plate coverage. This gives him a veteran presence at the plate, with the ability to hit to all fields while playing 81 games at Petco Park which certainly doesn’t give him any advantages. Petco Park is one of only 3 ballparks in the MLB that reduce runs by over 10%, joining only Tropicana Field and T-Mobile Park. The baseball savant chart from above highlighted Merrill’s 93rd percentile xBA and 92nd percentile sweet spot percentage which are both highlighted through Merrill’s impressive rookie spray charts (as of August 12th) which are pictured below.
Both his hit type and batted balls spray charts indicate a healthy spread with Merrill hitting the ball to all fields, further indicating his ability to fight off tough pitches and punch them the other way or use his elite speed to leg out infield base hits. This style of hitting has been a primary focus for Padres new hitting coach Victor Rodriguez, ultimately leading the club to have the best team batting average in all of baseball at .266. Merrill fits the exact prototype of a player that Rodriguez can work with to further tap into that power while also continuing to put together quality at bats with his hit tool and be a run producing middle of the order bat for the rest of what should be a lengthy MLB career. Look for the Padres to extend Merrill into his late 20’s with a deal that will cover his arbitration years before free agency attempting to lock in one of the cornerstones of their franchise.
