Padres 2024 Breakdown 8/4/24
Can San Diegans Trust This Team & Front Office?
Can a team of all short stops win? Credit: FanGraphs Baseball/David Frerker
It would be a safe assumption to deem the Padres one of the most exciting teams in baseball during the 2024 season. It’s been an organizational surge for a ball club that was teetering towards irrelevance during the 2010’s but with the hiring of AJ Preller, the club has had a fancy for blockbuster moves revolving around their once loaded farm system. Although Preller is the orchestrator of the madness, the Padres timeline truly begins once the Padres paid their now captain, Manny Machado a 10 year $300 million dollar deal in the early spring of 2019. After Manny many more followed as the ownership group led by Peter Seidler went all in on this core, spending over $650 million in the last 5 years on both extensions and free agents.
Now flash-forward to 2024, a year following an absolute disaster of a 2023 season where expectations were at its peak and the team disappointed finishing 82-80 and missing the postseason after making the NLCS the year prior. The team traded away Juan Soto last winter for a package of pitching prospects and Kyle Higashioka mainly in an attempt to save payroll and avoid reaching the luxury tax threshold for the third straight season. In order for this year's team to succeed they would need to lean on their stars, most notably the ones getting paid such as Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr, Xander Bogaerts, Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. After the passing of Peter Seidler it was as evident as ever that if this 2024 team disappointed again, AJ Preller’s would be on the hot seat. Most likely knowing this, he traded for White Sox ace Dylan Cease and Marlins batting champion Luis Arraez in May to further bolster the lineup and pitching staff.
Expectations surged back to where they were in 2023, with the expectation being a deep playoff run. The team was staying afloat throughout June, floating a few games above or below .500 while managing a tough schedule and a few injuries to some key players, most notably Xander Bogaerts, Darvish and Musgrove.
They show signs of greatness being a consistently good road team beating both the Dodgers and Braves in notable road series and having a flair for the dramatic with comeback wins paired with big innings. Despite these great moments, Padres fans have been sickened with the opposite, losing key series to the 41-72 Rockies and getting swept by the Angels, Mets and Phillies in a key road trip in early June.
Following the all-star break, they had a key road trip facing good teams such as Baltimore, Cleveland and Washington looking to secure wild card positioning and potentially catch the Dodgers in the division race. They would finish this trip a marvelous 7-2, coming back home and sweeping the Dodgers in a 2 game set and winning a series against Colorado. As of August 4th, they are tied for the first wildcard spot, a season best 61-52, and only 4.5 games back from the Dodgers. Now back to the question on all Padres fans minds: Can we trust this team?
Luis Arraez walks off the LA Dodgers Credit: Los Angeles Times
The short answer is yes. AJ Preller had an eventful trade deadline, bolstering the bullpen with additions like Tanner Scott, Byran Hoeing and Jason Adam adding to the known pieces of Robert Suarez and Jeremiah Estrada. The team seems to be peaking at the right time, as the playoff race tightens with rivals Mets, Diamondbacks and Cardinals all surging in the month of July as well.
The Padres have shown us glimpses of their full potential at times, stringing together 4+ wins a number of times this season, only to follow it up with a pitiful stretch immediately after. The schedule for the month of August is incredibly favorable, as the Padres will see lots of teams not in contention such as the Marlins, Tigers and Rockies.
Not only is their schedule a reason for optimism, but they are expecting star right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr to come off the IL with a quad injury to be back this month, giving them another spark plug addition to an already surging lineup. Tatis has been on the IL since mid June and was voted an all star starter this season.
Some critics argue the starting pitching is what will cripple this team in August and September, with both Michael King and Matt Waldron already exceeding the highest inning counts of their careers. Yu Darvish has been on the IL with a mix of injuries as he now deals with personal issues, his timeline for a return is foggy, but reports are Joe Musgrove will pitch this season after battling right elbow inflammation.
This team has more than enough pieces to make a deep playoff run and potentially catch the fading Dodgers for the division crown. Manager Mike Shildt has had a large amount of success in his resume in the 2nd half of the season with the Cardinals and the players seem to really love him, with Manny Machado saying, “Shildty’s made it clear. We do have the right guys. We just needed the guy who was going to lead it, the guy who was going to be that guy. He has that F-you mentality. It’s something that we needed here” (Ben and Woods).
Now for some predictions. Once Fernando Tatis Jr returns to this lineup I imagine this is how Mike Shildt envisions the lineup to be constructed versus both right handed and left handed pitching respectively.
Right Handed Starter
DH Luis Arraez 4
RF Fernando Tatis Jr 23
1B Jake Cronenworth 9
3B Manny Machado 13
2B Xander Bogaerts 2
LF Jurickson Profar 10
CF Jackson Merrill 3
SS Ha-Seong Kim 7
C Kyle Higashioka 20
Left Handed Starter
1B Luis Arraez 4
RF Fernando Tatis Jr 23
LF Jurickson Profar 10
3B Manny Machado
2B Xander Bogaerts 2
DH Donovan Solano 37
CF Jackson Merrill 3
SS Ha-Seong Kim 7
Kyle Higashioka 20
As for where this team finishes in mid September, my guess is they obtain the 1st wildcard position winning 92 games and finishing at a respectable 92-70 record. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the second half treats this San Diego club, who’ve experienced such dramatic highs and lows throughout the long baseball season. If they miss out on October, expect major renovations to be made in the front office starting with AJ Preller after trading key prospects Drew Thorpe, Dillion Head, Dylan Lesko, Robby Snelling and Adam Mazur this season already.
Sources:
